AI prediction
2 articles
On the Eve of the Final, I Had fable 5 Run Another Million Simulations: Messi Kicked More Than Half the Gap Away
All six predictions from the last article hit: Spain 2-0 France, Argentina 2-1 England, and the 41.8%-probability Spain–Argentina final came true. Before the final I fed the semifinal data back to fable 5 and re-ran a million simulations: Spain's win probability dropped from 54.1% to 51.8%, Argentina's rose from 45.9% to 48.2% — Messi, leading the tournament scoring chart, took back the points the model had docked for his age. Plus the story of a photo taken 19 years ago: Messi and baby Yamal.
I'm a Messi Fan, But I Asked the Strongest Model Ever — fable 5 — to Predict the World Cup. The Answer Hurt.
The 2026 World Cup semifinals are set, so I had Claude Fable 5 build a prediction model — Elo ratings, age-curve and tournament-experience adjustments, a dedicated penalty-shootout submodel — and run 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The result is the 'Argentina Paradox': Argentina has the highest probability of reaching the final (66.5%), yet Spain is the most likely champion (37.5%). A sensitivity analysis shows Messi's form is literally the dividing line.